Low turnout can be a product of voter apathy, the weather or the overall political climate. But whatever the election environment, there are ways that smart campaigns can maximize the vote.
First, campaigns must realize that there is a vast difference between primary, municipal and general election voters. To win in a primary contest, a campaign has to target those who have historically voted in these elections. That requires you to build Election Day turnout models based upon the turnouts for similar primary elections in the past.
Also, don't make the common mistake of targeting the wrong types of voters. For example, if you are managing a local race for mayor or council and the election is held in the spring, the campaign should not be targeting voters who only vote in general elections. At the same time that you're messaging to citizens who may not vote, you could be failing to communicate with others who have a history of voting in municipal elections or primaries.
To find targeting data, contact your local clerk or elections office and ask if you can obtain the number of registered voters and the number of actual voters who turned out to vote in the last two similar elections. Once you have this data, you can begin to build your turnout model. Averaging the last two similar elections and dividing that average into the total number of registered voters, should yield the turnout percentage—roughly the number of voters who will vote in your election.
Once you have targeted the most likely voters, it's time to start communicating your message to them. Make sure that message is clear, concise and consistent. Otherwise, you won't be able to penetrate the competing messages from other campaigns and consumer products.
The next step is to use this communication to identify which voters are supporting your candidate, and focus on turning them out on Election Day. In messaging to them, always incorporate the date of the election and the office you are running for. Because most voters are trained to think that elections occur in November, they need to be repeatedly reminded of the election date.
When it comes to turnout, it all boils down to these three critical efforts: research past elections, target the most likely voters and communicate a crisp, clear message. Do these well, and your campaign will have the structure it needs to win.
Tony Bawidamann is a Democratic strategist and vice president at the public relations/public affairs firm MWW Group.
1. Know your candidate bio
Because mail is less animated than TV, it relies more heavily on details about your candidates to bring them to life. Salting the copy with personal details regarding the candidates' local ties (where they grew up, their high school, where their grandfather's business was first located) will make their story interesting. And by researching your candidates' bios you will also learn their weaknesses, ensuring that you won't make an attack that could be deemed hypocritical.
2. Build your foundation on good research
You'll need to know the opposition as well as your own candidate, so a well-funded campaign should conduct opposition research and polling. Research both sides' strengths and weaknesses, their successes and failures. What you'll say about your candidate depends in part on what you think the other side will say about theirs. Test these messages in a baseline poll that walks through key message themes of each campaign—positive and negative—so you know what's believable and credible to voters. And when you finally do write that first negative mail, footnote every claim. In this new information age where people can Google almost any fact instantaneously, voters are even more wary of claims made without any substantiation.
3. Spend the money on a real photo shoot
Nothing makes an elected official look worse than a mail piece with three pictures: one grainy, one a head shot in front of a flag and the third a shot of them handing an oversized check to an unprepared township official. Put as much time into the still shoot as the TV shoot; think about what the major themes of the campaign will be and plan a shoot around those issues. Recruit as many volunteers as you can—seniors, kids, firemen, teachers, doctors—they'll all make these pre-planned shots look as natural as possible. And don't forget to take the diversity of your district into account when recruiting volunteers.
4. Understand your budget's constraints
Most people realize that your mail budget affects the volume of mail that you can send: The more money you raise, the more mail you can send. But it also affects the tone of your pieces. Fewer pieces means shortening the arc of what will be presented in the mail program. For example, in a competitive race, a 10-piece program might propose five positives, two comparatives and three negatives, spread out over five weeks. However, a four-piece plan might default to four comparatives over two weeks. A larger program will allow you to repeat key issues over a number of pieces. A smaller program must gamble and focus on just one or two issues, at most.
5. Lay the entire program out in a comprehensive plan
Once all the research is done and you have a good estimate of your budget, create a detailed mail plan that ensures the key players of the campaign are all on the same page. This plan should lay out the path to victory: the number of pieces, timing, targeting, themes, approval dates, mailing dates and cost. Moreover, ensure that contingency plans are clearly defined, in case your campaign has trouble raising money or the opponent runs a very different campaign (i.e., much more negative) than you expected.
Andrew Kennedy is principal of Kennedy Communications, a Democratic firm specializing in direct mail and print advertising.
In politics, most opportunities result from a single, identifiable human being. Here are some practical and proven principles you can use to expand your contacts and create relationships that can help you throughout your political career.
1. Develop a Game Plan
The first thing to do before a networking event is to define your goals by asking three questions:
2. Make Contact
In Dale Carnegie’s How to Win Friends and Influence People, he states, “You can make more friends in two months by becoming really interested in other people than you can in two years by trying to get other people interested in you.” I understand this runs counter to typical political networking, where people have the tendency to brag and bloviate. When meeting someone, though, you don’t have to manipulate and you don’t have to be agreeable (especially if they are affiliated with another political party). You just have to care. After you establish a rapport, tell them a little about yourself and suggest a “let’s do lunch” follow-up. After you walk away, write any additional information about the contact on the back of their business card. This will be helpful when you follow up with them.
3. Follow Up, Follow Up, Follow Up!
It is essential you enter the contact’s business card information and any notes you wrote on the back of the card into your Outlook, Plaxo or Excel spreadsheet. And if you want your new acquaintances to become part of your network, reach out to them that night or the next day so you don’t get lost in their pile of business cards. By sending an e-mail, making a phone call or sending a “nice meeting you” note, you’ve continued the line of communication. You’ve invested all that time preparing for the event; it would be a shame if you didn’t close the deal.
Christopher N. Malagisi is the grassroots coordinator at The Leadership Institute, a national conservative political training organization.