Whither the Republican Party?

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By John Zogby

A thing moderately good is not so good as it ought to be. Moderation in temper is always a virtue; but moderation in principle is always a vice.
—Thomas Paine

Never go to excess, but let moderation be your guide.
—Marcus Tullius Cicero


Republicans have a choice, and their survival as a party may be at stake. Do they follow Paine or Cicero?

Elections are most often won in the middle. The Karl Rove strategy of 50 percent plus one did win two presidential elections. However, it’s impossible to govern effectively when your entire strategy is built on keeping your base motivated.

Zogby Interactive post-election polling of more than 25,000 voters exposed just how weak the GOP has become with self-identified moderates. Our polling showed that Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2-to-1 (43 percent to 17 percent). Only 1 in 4 Republicans (24 percent) identify as moderates, compared to half (49 percent) of Democrats.

There are two dynamics at work here. First, the Republican Party has moved to the right. That makes Democrats appear more moderate. Second, the Democrats have moved to the center, beginning with Bill Clinton’s declaration that “the era of big government is over.”

After losing five of six presidential elections from 1968 to 1988, Democratic party voters and interest groups allowed Clinton to take the middle ground. Republican voters do not appear at all close to allowing similar movement in their party. Just look at what happened when several Republicans, including RNC Chairman Michael Steele, voiced some criticism of Rush Limbaugh for saying he wants President Barack Obama to fail “if his mission is to restructure and reform this country so that capitalism and individual liberty are not its foundation?”

The Atlantic’s Ross Douthat sums up the Republican problem this way: “The GOP’s leaders desperately need some space in which to experiment a little, on policy and otherwise, and they don’t seem to have it at the moment.”

Implicit in Limbaugh’s statement is this reality: The GOP’s easiest route to electoral success in 2010 and 2012 is voter perception that Obama and his policies are not fixing the economy.

Even that may not work if Republicans are seen as obstructionist. An NBC–Wall Street Journal poll in March found that 56 percent say Republicans have opposed Obama’s policies “because they are trying to gain political advantage,” compared to 30 percent who say it is “because they are standing up for their principles.” The same poll found that 51 percent agreed that “government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people,” while 40 percent said “government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.”

Republicans should look to the second question as a way to find middle ground. The 11-point spread shows public ambivalence on the proper role of government. For Republicans to come back, they must offer a more moderate approach to appropriate government action. They can’t continue to just oppose government regulation, public works, investment and health care programs on principle when people are feeling desperate and need help.

But I just don’t see that happening. Republicans, especially in Congress, are too dependent on conservative voters. They genuinely fear challenges from the right should they move to the center. So it appears that the GOP’s best hope for regaining power is for bad things to continue to happen to the nation, including the wild card of a terrorist attack or international crisis. That is a very sorry situation for the nation and our twoparty system.


John Zogby is president and CEO of the polling firm Zogby International. You can post comments on political topics in the Zogby Forums at Zogby.com.