Advertisement
When robocalls work... and when they don't
Q: Why do campaigns continue to use robocalls when all evidence shows that they are not effective? Just see Green and Gerber's GOTV book.
A: Here's the background: Yale professors Donald Green and Alan Gerber recently updated their book, Get Out the Vote: How to Increase Voter Turnout, and concluded (again) that GOTV robo calls are ineffective.
But here's the rub: Green and Gerber look at robo calls somewhat in isolation, emphasizing only their GOTV role and underplaying the efficacy of automated persuasion calls. Frankly, only a fool would defend automated calls that are either an afterthought or poorly integrated into a campaign's overall message strategy. In any case, it's not clear that "all evidence" points toward the waste or obsolescence of robo calls.
Michael Matthews, of the Democratic voter-contact firm LSG Strategies, explains: "Any tool used poorly or overused (billboards, yard signs, direct mail and, yes, TV and radio ads) is certainly less effective. In the final days before an election, much communication doesn't really break through. Campaigns are often better served when using phones in concert with all other forms of voter contact rather than as an afterthought. (‘What do we do with the last few dollars? I know, let's put out another call!') Using auto calls in advance of door-to-door efforts, making pre-calls and/or ‘chase' calls around direct mail pieces are smart uses of the tool. And, of course, auto (and live) calls remain the quickest rapid-response tools available."
Some critics—such as StopPoliticalCalls.org—protest that unwanted political calls constitute "partisan posturing" and merely contribute to negative campaigning. Maybe, maybe not. But if that's what you think, send us your thoughts so we can continue this discussion next month.
Q: What is the difference in priority between paid advertising and field operations? Which should we fund first and, if needed, cut first?
A: That's rather like choosing between the devil and the deep blue sea. Most campaigns need some combination of field and paid ads. In a high-turnout election, field efforts or GOTV may be secondary to either paid or earned media. Similarly, down-ballot statewide candidates may get faster name ID from advertising than from door-to-door canvasses. Conversely, most state representative candidates should focus on field rather than buying a few ads that will disappear before anyone notices. In any case, customize your plan to fit the race and, if forced to scale back, think first, war game the consequences and then adjust accordingly.
Q: I've gotten a lot of offers on races out of state, but I'm stuck in a non-battleground state without a lot of opportunities because of school and my apartment. Are there any other approaches to get some good experience in this situation?
A: Help at the local party headquarters. Offer to phone bank from home or on your cell. See which campaigns have online tools that don't require you to be in-state. Organize fund-raisers for candidates you support. Go volunteer in a different state on a long weekend or during fall break. Stick with it. Your persistence alone will show folks you have what it takes to work on a future campaign.
Online Money for Local Races
Q: Some local campaigns have been attempting online fundraising. Is that something we should consider too, or is it still just for national campaigns?
A: Some local campaigns are trying to figure out how to do it, but it has not yet reached critical mass. That being said, here’s a great story to remember for next cycle.
Sean Tevis, a Kansas Democrat running for state representative in a Republican seat, created an online cartoon strip as a last-ditch fundraising ploy using stick figures to represent himself and his opponent. As Tevis told the Los Angeles Times, he hoped to raise “a few thousand dollars, at most.” In 12 days through PayPal, he raised—you gotta love it—$95,000.
To his credit, incumbent Arlen Siegfreid countered with his own online fundraising program, noting that “just 1.8 percent” of Tevis’ donations were from Kansas and exhorting backers to fight this “out-of-state onslaught” by donating “online today through PayPal.”
I’m not going to comment on other tactics and messaging by these two candidates, or who is likely to win. But, wow. This is a great online innovation by a challenger, followed by a solid recovery and pushback by the incumbent. A sign of things to come.
Q: Should we use a professional announcer for our radio ads?
A: For third-person ads, yes, so long as the voice isn’t an over-the-top “voice of God” narrator. For testimonials, as noted before in this column, no. There’s no substitute for real people.
Q: How should absentee voting, vote-by-mail and early voting change our field and GOTV plans?
A: Early voting means earlier persuasion ads (positive and negative) and earlier, more intensive field and GOTV. And that frontloading means bigger budgets and even more fundraising. Not what the good-government folks expected when they made it easier to vote early, but it has increased voter participation throughout the country. And that’s good. Problem is, for field and GOTV, the devil is in the details. Early-vote methods vary by state (e.g., mail ballots vs. polling places), as does voter eligibility (e.g., unrestricted vs. age or health requirements). In any case, get a copy of the rules, applicable dates and a voter file with early-vote history. Also, get your consultants to model voters likely to vote early, such as senior citizens, shift workers and people who travel a lot.
Q: Is it necessary to file congressional finance reports electronically?
A: According to the FEC rules that took effect in January 2001, “Any committee that receives contributions or makes expenditures in excess of $50,000 in the current calendar year, or that has reason to expect to do so, must submit its reports electronically. Any filer who is required to file electronically, but instead files on paper, will be considered a nonfiler and may be subject to enforcement action under the administrative fine program.”
But there’s a do-as-I-say-not-as-I-do exception: “These requirements do not apply to Senate candidate committees (and other persons who support Senate candidates only), who file with the Secretary of the Senate.” And there’s this interesting sidebar: “Committees that are not required to file electronically are strongly encouraged to do so voluntarily. Once a committee begins to file its reports electronically, on a voluntary basis, it must continue to file electronically for the remainder of the calendar year.”
If all that is unclear, guess what: That’s why there are election-law attorneys to guide you through the compliance mine fields.
Craig Varoga has run local, state and presidential campaigns for the past 20 years. He currently specializes in independent expenditures as a partner at Independent Strategies. E-mail questions to cvaroga@politicsmagazine.com.
Debate Humor? Better Dull Than Dead...
Q: What do you think about using humor in debates to soften the candidate’s image?
A: Humor is a great rhetorical tool if—and this if is a whopper—the candidate has poise, judgment and timing. Think of the third Kennedy–Nixon debate when JFK was asked to apologize for President Truman’s statement that Nixon supporters could “go to hell.” Kennedy artfully sidestepped, saying, “I really don’t think there’s anything that I could say to President Truman that’s going to cause him, at the age of 76, to change his particular speaking manner. Perhaps Mrs. Truman can, but I don’t think I can.” The problem is, most efforts at light humor and canned jokes fall fl at. Earlier this year, Mitt Romney joked that his five sons were serving their country by working on his campaign. He later noted, “That was meant to be a sort of funny line, but when it’s read as a serious line, that can be a problem.” So humor’s great, but the devil’s in the delivery. When in doubt, be boring. Better dull than dead.
Q: Our media consultants say they can’t help with debate preparation. Isn’t that standard as part of doing media?
A: It should be, but is it part of their contract? And how much advance notice did you give them? You still have leverage if the consultant is owed expenses or part of their fee. If not, you could throw yourself at a quality lacking in politics: mercy.
Q: Because of the anticipated high turnout, we plan to hand out materials at voting locations rather than go door to door on Election Day. That’s our best use of resources, right?
A: As long as you have a heavy persuasion program, and the turnout model matches your likely voters, and some other group can be trusted to handle overall GOTV (e.g., the coordinated campaign)—sure, your plan makes sense. But do verify that the GOTV plan is real.
Q: What are psychographics? Examples would be great.
A: It’s a fancy word that refers to targeting voters according to social class, lifestyle, moral values and opinions (e.g., hunting, church attendance, TV viewing habits). These variables are different from demographics (e.g., age and gender) and behavioral variables (e.g., voting in primaries). The gold standard is the Bush 2004 campaign, which analyzed magazine readership, car ownership and other variables to win an election they were at risk of losing.
Q: When do we need a transition plan?
A: The first rule is winning. So don’t measure the drapes quite yet. But to be ready, designate a discreet team member who can devote time to outline in detail the staff positions, departments and budget status of the office your candidate is seeking. Also, direct them to establish a vetting process for job applicants. Then, the morning after the election, if you do indeed win, fully brief the candidate on his or her next steps.
Q: I may be making the ultimate mistake—asking for advice about losing—but I think there is little we can do to turn our campaign around and we need a soft landing.
A: Here’s the drill: Pay all the bills, send thank you notes, clean up the database, help staff look for jobs, shut down offices, file end-of-the-year disclosure reports, send W-2s to staff and 1099s to independent contractors. Soft landings make future launches possible—especially after a loss, when you need friends and colleagues for the next go-around.
E-mail questions to cvaroga@independentstrategies.com.
Some keys to a smooth transition...
Some keys to a smooth transition...
Q: Should inauguration and transition responsibilities be handled by the same people?
A: It could be okay for small offices with few government employees (such as state legislator or city councilman) where the “inauguration” is really a swearing-in alongside other elected officials. But for bigger offices with multiple departments (such as mayor or county executive), and where the inauguration is a big-time deal with galas and thousands of attendees—yes, absolutely, put different people in charge with clear lines of responsibility.
Q: Is it okay to use money left over from the campaign on the transition?
A: Maybe, but first check applicable laws regarding use of campaign funds. Since some jurisdictions provide a nominal transition budget or allow fundraising into a separate transition account, it might be unnecessary. You should also determine the legality of using leftover campaign funds for political purposes after taking office (e.g., meals, flowers for funerals, newsletters, website maintenance, retainer fees, etc.).
Q: What are the compliance requirements for campaign reports after Election Day?
A: It varies by jurisdiction. For example, congressional and Senate races are required to file post-election reports by Dec. 4, 2008 for the period ending Nov. 24. Most states and localities have similar requirements, but some do not. Check with your attorneys, compliance officers and the Board of Elections, Ethics Office or similar authority.
Q: We had a lot of bipartisan support in our campaign and need to maintain this support to win the next election. Is it okay to hire staff from the opposition party if they supported us? This would mean not hiring supporters from our own party.
A: It’s alright if you campaigned on a bipartisan platform of serving all the people of your district and, most especially, if you won in a nonpartisan election. But if you ran for an office with party primaries, don’t overdo it dance with the ones that brung you and who are responsible for re-nominating you next time around.
Q: Should we keep our furniture and supplies for the next campaign or get rid of everything?
A: Sell computers, phones and other electronic equipment, or donate them to charity, since the technology will be outdated by the next election. But put tables, chairs, desks, filing cabinets, stationery and office supplies into storage.
Q: How should we shut down staff, headquarters, material and other campaign operations?
A: One, help all staff find jobs—win or lose, they worked for you and deserve help. Two, make a list of all campaign promises and give them to the candidate to monitor in his or her future political career. Three, debrief everyone—candidate, family, steering committee, consultants, staff—on what worked and what didn’t, then put your findings into an exit memo. Four, clean the headquarters and leave it in pristine condition for the landlord. Five, take down all large signs you put up throughout the district. Six, pay all bills (the road to obscurity is paved with deadbeats). And seven, get all deposits for phones and utilities, and audit all media buys to get refunds on ads that were bumped or didn’t run.
Is Clerical Work the Price of Admission?
Is Clerical Work the Price of Admission?Q: Do you have an opinion on entry-level campaign jobs? I would like to think I could do more than clerical assistance, but don’t want to miss an opportunity.
A: You and thousands of other smart people are qualified to do more than clerical assistance, but campaigns are doing gobs of work, in very little time, with inadequate resources. That means all hands on deck, do the work now. It’s why campaigns are rife with last-minute battlefield promotions. So if going clerical is the price of admission, go for it and sweat the promotions later.
Q: One of our big donors also gave to the opposition. What’s this about?
A: You won’t know for sure unless you ask the donor (and maybe not even then), but it happens all the time. Some donors switch, others play both sides. Some donate before the field is set. Some spread money around so that multiple voices can be heard, especially in party primaries. And some write courtesy checks to longtime friends or associates, but do the heavy work (bundling or sitting on a finance committee) for the candidate they really want to win.
Q: Any chance you can share tips on media training? Our candidate wants to schedule a session with our TV consultant. Personally, I’d love to see some improvement and think we’re overdue for a session.
A: If that’s what you think, here’s the first tip: Stop talking and put it on the schedule. Do a whole morning or afternoon—none of this one-hour-squeezed-in-betweenappearances nonsense. For the session itself, prepare a briefing book with concise questions and answers on all major issues; identify recurring themes or messages to frame each answer (e.g., change, responsibility, difficult times); simulate the interview environment (e.g., on camera, in office or studio); record and critique. Then, practice until you get it right, and schedule future sessions to keep it right.
Q: What happens if we file late campaign finance reports?
A: Certainly nothing good, although it might not quite be “bankruptcy and scandal and prison” (also Google “silly, stupid old fool”). In federal races, failure to file reports on time could result in FEC penalties ranging from $30 to more than $16,000. All FEC reports and other filings are due on or before the established filing deadline. And (for anyone thinking they can plea special circumstances) the FEC does not have statutory authority to extend any filing deadlines. State and local regulations are also unforgiving—as are opponents, reporters, editorial boards and donors.
Q: Here’s an ironic quote from your last column: “Use a lot of interactive social media…” But you didn’t belong to Facebook when you gave that advice.
A: Busted, and guilty as charged. But in the spirit of “do as say, not as I did,” I have broken with my own failed policies of the past and have embraced the politics of change and innovation. After recently posting on my wall a link to a news story that I found interesting, a friend busted me further, noting, “Didn’t it take 19,000 of us to convince Craig to join Facebook—and now he’s recommending literature.” The faith of the newly converted, indeed—things are moving quickly.
Craig Varoga is partner at Independent Strategies. E-mail questions to cvaroga@IndependentStrategies.com.
Ask the Campaign Doc
Raising Online Money Like Obama
Q: If I’m not named Barack Obama, how much money can I raise online?
A: For an actual opted-in list (i.e., no spamming), a campaign can conservatively expect to raise approximately $500,000 to $750,000 for every 100,000 valid email prospects on file, according to Thomas Gensemer of Blue State Digital, the firm that ran President Obama’s online operation. “This rough estimate assumes a six-to-nine month campaign and assumes properly executed messaging and list segmentation, including personable, actionable and timely communications,” Gensemer explains.
But remember, candidates and causes are very different, and unlike traditional direct mail, online donors should not be isolated. Your best donor can be your best volunteer and vice versa. All investments in e-mail list acquisition should be tied to clear return-on-investment standards. For example, every dollar spent on Google Adwords should have a budgetary expectation for dollars raised or advocacy actions taken.
Q: Should I be worried about security with an online bookkeeping service?
A: Online bookkeeping will enable your bookkeeper, accountant, compliance director and attorneys to share information quickly, which is a big plus. It will also enable them to work late hours or on weekends without going to the office. In addition to the physical convenience, online bookkeeping is usually easy to set up and doesn’t require an IT specialist. As for data security, an online password-protected system is more secure than an unprotected laptop that could be accidentally left behind in an empty office or the back of a cab. But make sure the service is compatible with your system for campaign finance reports.
Q: How can I market a host of very customized media services—including shooting, editing and specialized audio services—to campaign professionals?
A: You should contact media firms directly and explain your services and availability. But expect plenty of questions. They’ll want to know whether you own or lease equipment and will be curious about your party affiliation. They’ll also inquire about your ability to travel and your track record in honoring confidentiality agreements.
Q: What is cybersquatting?
A: The term refers to registering and using a domain name in bad faith, and later attempting to sell the domain to the affected person or company at an inflated price. It happens all the time to campaigns. In 2004, before Obama was even elected to the Senate, a cybersquatter purchased BarackObama2008.com. A squatter in California bought WhitmanForGovernor.com and MegWhitman2010.com before former eBay CEO Meg Whitman launched her campaign. Another cyber profiteer bought Rudy- ForPresident.com about a week after 9/11 (talk about disgusting).
The U.S. Anticybersquatting Consumer Protection Act is meant to combat the profiteers, but the protections are inadequate for underfunded candidates. And jurisdiction can be a problem if the domain name is owned internationally. For campaigns, some legal experts have suggested that the creation of “.pol” which only candidates and political entities would be allowed to register.
Craig Varoga has run local, state and presidential campaigns for the past 20 years. He currently specializes in independent expenditures as a partner at Independent Strategies. E-mail questions to cvaroga@independentstrategies.com.
Don't Get Burned by Facebook
Don't Get Burned by Facebook
Q: I want to continue using my Facebook and Twitter accounts during the election, but my instincts wonder if it might not be in the campaign’s best interests. What do you think?
A: Both are tremendous organizing and communication tools. Just remember that indiscretion comes back to haunt. Exhibit one: the California congressional candidate whose party photos on Facebook ended up in an opposition mailer. Exhibit two: the Massachusetts consultant who tweeted a friend that he was editing an ad for a Virginia candidate and, three hours later, the tweet was posted on a state political blog suggesting that the candidate was preparing to go up with his media campaign.
Q: My brother-in-law is running for city council. This is his first campaign and initial funding is limited. He has sent letters to some contractors and lobbyists and he plans on making personal phone calls to his friends and colleagues. After that, what are the most effective fundraising activities?
A: Here’s one possibility: After obtaining legal approval, get the campaign finance reports for the most recent election cycle for council candidates in your area. Call and send info on your brother-in-law’s campaign to contributors listed on these reports. And obviously, work the donors your brother-in-law already knows the hardest.
But be careful, House and Senate candidates cannot use campaign finance reports to raise money and, although most states and localities lack similar prohibitions, it’s better to be safe than sorry. In addition, some jurisdictions either prohibit donations by contractors and lobbyists or have blackout periods restricting when specific types of contributions are permitted.
Q: Do we need to purchase an email list, and if so, what’s the right time?
A: An early purchase makes sense since it can generate quick interest and help build your supporter list. Longer-term, the ZIP code and demographic targeting afforded by list brokers can help you efficiently email prospects. Buying your list early will also enable you to test, segment, refine and optimize messages, providing more effective engagement with voters. As Todd Webster of WebStrong Group says, “The campaign’s online strategy to keep its list engaged with regular and relevant messages is as important as the quality of the email list itself.” Webster also notes that response rates will improve when email is part of a broader media mix that includes TV, radio, earned media and online communications, all of which are aimed at reinforcing your message.
Q: Do you have a suggestion of how to persuade a firm identified with one party to work with an independent in a nonpartisan race, even if the candidate once voted in a different party’s primary?
A: Never beg to marry someone who doesn’t love you and never hire people or vendors who don’t want to work with you—it ain’t gonna work. The only possible exception is a strategic hire to deprive a major opponent of a capable advisor, but that’s a luxury enjoyed only by over-funded campaigns. While we’re at it: You and the candidate could actually have a bigger problem depending on the partisan performance of your district. If that’s the case, deal with it sooner rather than later—otherwise all the king’s vendors and consultants may not be able to put your Humpty Dumpty coalition together.
Craig Varoga has run local, state and presidential campaigns for the past 20 years. He currently specializes in independent expenditures as a partner at Independent Strategies. E-mail questions to cvaroga@independentstrategies.com.
Advertisement
© 2010 Politics Magazine