Targeting Retail Shoppers

Let's talk retail politics. No, I'm not talking about door-to-door canvassing and phone banks. At Zogby International, we measure the real politics of retail. Our maxim is: "You are where you shop."

That means looking at how retail shopping choices line up with voting patterns. Those patterns are very clear. Think of WalMart and Sears as the red stores. Painted blue are upscale Macy's, Bloomingdale's and Nieman-Marcus, the everyman store Marshall's and the "we're not like Wal-Mart" discounter Costco. The swing stores include JC Penney, Target and Kohl's.

A post-election Zogby Interactive poll of 24,964 voters, drawn from our large online panel, asked about store preferences ("if you could only shop at one store for the rest of your life …") and how they voted for president. These results add another dimension of analysis to how Barack Obama became our 44th president. Obama won by 26 at Macy's, 35 at Bloomingdale's, 29 at Nieman Marcus, 20 at Marshall's and 23 at Costco. These stores make up 14 percent of our voter sample.

Next, Obama took a big bite out of the Republican advantage at Wal-Mart and Sears. Wal-Mart is the electoral treasure trove of retail stores. One in four voters chose it. In 2008, McCain still won at Wal-Mart, 58 percent to 41 percent, but our data shows that Obama substantially reduced the GOP margin there. At Sears (5 percent of our sample), McCain beat Obama by only 13. Four years ago, Bush took Sears by 39 points.

Just as Obama won nearly all the battleground states, he had healthy margins at our swing stores. Target was his big enchilada. Obama won Target voters by 27 points. JC Penney went for Bush in 2004, but this time Obama won by 13. He took Costco and Kohl's by similar margins.

What do these outcomes mean for politicians and voters?

First off, there are definitely ideological differences among shoppers of different stores. When shifts occur within these shopper groups, it has importance. In 2008, shoppers at Sears, Wal-Mart and JC Penney moved in large numbers from Republican or centrist to Democrat.

More important for candidates are the implications for the rapidly developing art of microtargeting. If a candidate wants to reach his or her base voters, they can be found very easily at the corresponding retailer. If you are a Republican running for Congress, you may be able to find volunteers at Sears. If you are a Democrat who wants to be governor, tap into those Nieman Marcus shoppers for financial support.

If you are running for mayor and want to reach out to persuadable voters, hang out at Target or JC Penney. Strategists can take it one step farther. A big part of why shoppers choose a particular store is in the message that retailer sends to consumers, and how that appeals to a person's self-image.

For example, Marshall's offers "real value at low prices." So Marshall's shoppers may take a look at the underdog who promises to make government more efficient. Target emphasizes community service and protecting the environment. A Republican who can comfortably talk about those issues might steal some Target shoppers from his Democratic opponent.

Sears harkens back to a simpler and more neighborly America. That gives Democrats an opening to undercut Republicans with an appeal to Sears shoppers' ideas of fairness and making sure that people "who work hard and play by the rules" will have economic security.

Politics and marketing have always been about the same thing: convincing people to choose a product or person over others available. The same impulses and values come into play in the marketplace as in the polling booth. A wise observer will track the crossover between voting and shopping, and use the information available to win elections and better understand the way we'll be.

John Zogby is president and CEO of Zogby International and the author of The Way We'll Be: The Zogby Report on the Transformation of the American Dream.