States in the Spotlight
States in the Spotlight
Indiana
Indiana's 7th District has a long Democratic history, including being represented by the late Rep. Julia Carson for more than 10 years before her death in December.
That legacy suggests Andre Carson, an Indianapolis city-county councilman, should be the easy favorite in the March 11 special election to fill his grandmother's seat. Carson, who went by the nickname "Juggernaut" as a teenage rapper, "seems to be getting the old Carson machine to coalesce around him," says Brian Howey, whose nonpartisan Howey Political Report tracks Hoosier politics.
The Republican candidate, however, is state Rep. Jon Elrod, who has been called a "giant killer" and runs well in Democratic districts. "Elrod has a reputation as a moderate Republican who burned through a lot of shoes and will hit every house in his district," Howey says. "And I think he's got to be taken very seriously."
The winner will fill the seat until the election in November. Regardless of the special election outcome, Carson has at least one serious challenger in the regular May 6 primary. And the winner of that race will face Elrod again.
—Robert Schlesinger
Illinois
House Speaker Dennis Hastert has managed to stir up quite a hornet's nest by retiring. In the battle to replace him, the Republican primary got nasty and expensive. And it looks as if the race may continue on that tack.
Even though the GOP is favored to hold the seat with relative ease, the contest could potentially become one of the most expensive House races before the year is out, mainly because the Republican nominee, Jim Oberweis, has deep pockets.
Last month, after a contentious nomination fight on the Republican side, dairy magnate Oberweis emerged as the GOP nominee after pumping more than $1.5 million of his own money into the race and receiving Hastert's coveted endorsement.
On March 8, Oberweis will face Democratic nominee Bill Foster, a scientist and businessman, in a special election to serve out the remainder of Hastert's term.
The GOP views the 14th District as a bellwether: If Foster pulls off a March upset, it could portend doom for Republican efforts in November.
—Doug Daniels
Oregon
Try as they might, the Oregon Republican Party just can't recruit people to run this year.
The state has been trending blue—Democrats recently took the state legislature, but hold it by only one seat. And the national climate favors Democrats this year. But while the GOP has turned to well-known names to boost its chances in several states, Oregon Republicans haven't had much luck attracting anybody to pursue statewide office. So far, several Republicans have acknowledged they briefly mulled a run. In the end, however, they've all reached the same conclusion: This is simply a Democratic year in Oregon.
Brianne Hyder, a spokeswoman for the Oregon GOP, says the party plans to unveil its secretary of state, attorney general and treasurer candidates closer to the March 11 filing deadline. But at that point, those candidates will be facing Democratic opponents who have been raising money and campaigning for months.
Tim Phillips is co-chairman of the Oregon Leadership Roundtable, which is trying to unify the various factions within the state GOP. He says that while many strong candidates have declined to run, he's optimistic the party can re-establish its credibility there.
"The party has been splintered, but I think there is a strong appetite to avoid a bloody nominating process, and I think we can still re-brand and reinvigorate the Republican Party in Oregon," he says.
—Doug Daniels
Nebraska
After leaving the Republican Party last December, Nebraska businessman Tony Raimondo has become a Democrat and entered the race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel.
Raimondo said he flirted with the idea of remaining a Republican, but felt former Gov. Mike Johanns would be far too formidable an opponent in the primary. Johanns, who served as President George W. Bush's agriculture secretary until he resigned last fall to pursue the Senate seat, enjoys extraordinary popularity within the state.
"A challenge for Tony is going to be to explain how he went from being George Bush's manufacturing czar to supporting the Democratic Party platform in such a short period of time," says Phil Young, a GOP consultant in Nebraska who has no ties to any of the candidates.
Raimondo faces Air Force veteran and longtime party activist Larry Marvin in the Democratic primary. Whoever emerges from that primary in May will most likely meet Johanns in the general, considering the only other Republican running in the primary, Pat Flynn, is completely unknown and unfunded.
Raimondo's party switch carries some delicious irony: Johanns began his political career as a Democrat.
—Doug Daniels
Tennessee
Just two years after overhauling the state's ethics laws, some Volunteer State lawmakers are now whining that they cannot dine—and they're looking for ways to loosen the rules. The current ethics law, passed in the wake of a bribery scandal, more or less bans lobbyists and their employers from buying food and drink for state legislators.
Some lawmakers now favor altering the law to allow the meals along with full disclosure. In other words: Eat, drink and let voters decide whether it matters. One proposal would allow lobbyists to spend $1,000 annually per legislator, with no meal costing more than $75.
"I'm sure it's legitimate at one level," says Bruce Oppenheimer, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University. "The problem, obviously, with setting regulations on ethics provisions is, as soon as you open them up a crack, people can turn them into bigger loopholes. So the problem is how do you avoid the inconveniences that are being created ... without opening up the floodgates."
—Robert Schlesinger
States in the Spotlight
Rhode IslandThough Rhode Island is a small northeastern state nowhere near the southern border, Republican Gov. Donald Carcieri has issued a tough executive order on illegal immigration.
In fact, the six-point order is arguably the toughest in New England. While states like New York are issuing driver's licenses to illegal immigrants, Rhode Island's new plan will require all state agencies and all companies that do business with them to electronically verify the legality of their employees. State police will receive training from the U.S. Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement so that they can help immigration officers arrest illegal immigrants. The bureau will also train the state parole board about deportation.
As it happens, this order is from the same state that last year added non-citizen children to its healthcare program for the poor. But Carcieri says the state's 40,000 illegal immigrants are creating a financial burden for the taxpayers.
Steven Brown, executive director of the Rhode Island affiliate of the American Civil Liberties Union, thinks the order will increase racial profiling. According to a 2005 study by the group, police were twice as likely to stop and search minority drivers as white drivers, even though more illegal substances were found with white drivers. The executive order, Brown says, will "encourage [police] to stop, detain and question much more vigorously based on appearance and accent."
Some critics contend there are reasons for Carcieri's order beyond curbing illegal immigration. The governor is facing an all-time low approval rating and the state is estimated to have a $550 million budget deficit. Fortunately for him, though, the immigration order has—for now—taken the deficit off the front pages of local papers.
—Corinne Minard
Idaho
Idaho Democrats think 2008 is finally the year they'll break through the wall of GOP control. Ironically, the party may end up pinning its hopes on a former Republican and Nixon White House staffer.
The Democrats are targeting first-term Republican Rep. Bill Sali, who occupies a House seat once held by Democrats for more than a decade. They're rallying behind Walt Minnick, who has already raised more than $400,000, besting Sali by more than $100,000.
Minnick ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Larry Craig in 1996. Before resigning from the Nixon White House, he was a staff assistant sharing an office with Howard Hunt and G. Gordon Libby.
Sali is expected to win the Republican primary this month.
Idaho Republicans currently control the governor's office and both houses of the state legislature. Idaho's two U.S. Senate seats have been red since 1981, and Republicans have occupied the state's two congressional seats since 1995. Yet polls indicate that Sali could be vulnerable despite Idaho's conservative electorate.
Beyond Sali's fairly high unfavorables, Democrats have some advantages: A well-funded challenger, a wave of national enthusiasm and new state party chairman Jim Hansen.
"Jim makes the chances for Democrats to defeat Sali very good," says Chuck Oxley, spokesman for the Idaho Democratic Party. "He is the kind of eternal optimist we need to unify the party against the Republicans in the fall."
Democrats hope that Hansen, the son of former Rep. Orval Hansen, will be a unifying figure for the party. He replaces former executive director John Foster, who is now heading Minnick's campaign.
"Sali is the only target for a [Democratic] victory in Idaho at the federal level," says Shea Andersen, editor at Boise Weekly. "It will be interesting," he says, "to see the Democratic Party unite here like it did against George W. Bush in 2004."
—Ryan Reeh
Alabama
Republicans may be having a tough fundraising year, but the Alabama Republican Party is finding just the opposite in a state that's had a Democratic legislature for the past 100 years.
Last year, the state GOP was $40,000 in debt. This year, the group has raised that much plus $3.8 million toward its $4 million goal for 2010. This is the most the party has ever raised in a single year.
The party is crowing over its success, and says it will help them keep up with state Dems, who receive large cash infusions from the Alabama Education Association. The Alabama GOP doesn't have any donor that contributes anywhere near as much.
The National Republican Committee is also pretty pleased. It invited Alabama GOP chairman Mike Hubbard to share some of his methods during a recent meeting of state party chairmen. "The NRC sees it as a business model that they can implement," says Philip Brown, the Alabama GOP's communications director.
The party's new approach offers donors benefits for each donation level, not just the upper-tier ones. The party has also started sending staffers to the homes of high-level donors to thank them in person. Plus, Brown adds, "We are pulling back the curtain, laying out our business model and accounting for every dime."
Their success is probably attributable to such new techniques, rather than any sudden demographic changes. Sen. Hillary Clinton's fundraising has blown all other presidential candidates out of the water here; the Republican who came closest was Rudy Giuliani, who raised about $100,000 less than her.
Brown says the party's new fundraising program also got a shot in the arm from Republican Gov. Bob Riley, whose approval ratings are nearing 70 percent and who has headlined some of the party's biggest fundraising events.
—Corinne Minard
Oklahoma
The Oklahoma Ethics Commission maintains that it is so underfunded that it can't even buy stamps—let alone make sure the state's elected officials and candidates know the ins and outs of ethics laws.
"We're the only agency I know that has to worry about stamps and paper," says Rebecca Adams, the general counsel of the commission.
Which is why the commission is considering taking the unusual step of suing the state for more money.
The commission is responsible for prosecuting any violations of state ethics laws, and it's the state's legal obligation to provide the commission with as much funding as it needs to operate. However, only $36,000 has been made available for its work during the 2008 election cycle.
So, after repeated requests for more money, executive director Marilyn Hughes is threatening to sue.
Although state legislators recognize the problem, it's not yet on their agenda. "If you're traveling on the interstate and you want to speed, you're not going to want more cops on the road," says Randall Darey Roberts, an investigator at the commission.
—Lauren Zingarelli
Maryland
State Republicans are crying foul over Democratic Gov. Martin O Rep. Al Wynn made news in February when he lost the Democratic primary to antiwar activist Donna Edwards.
He's opted to leave his seat in June for a job at the law firm Dickstein Shapiro.
O'Malley has decided the state will bypass a special primary and just hold a special general election to be held on June 17, so that the district has less time with an open seat.
The parties are expected to nominate Edwards and Republican Peter James, who just faced off in the regular primary.
"The people should be able to decide who is going to be on the ballot," says John Flynn, the executive director of the state Republican Party.
—Lauren Zingarelli
Michigan
Gary Brown, Detroit's former deputy police chief, just settled a lawsuit that claimed Democratic Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick fired him in retaliation for investigating the mayor's alleged sexual affair with his chief of staff. Now Brown is preparing to run for office. He just hasn't made up his mind which seat he wants.
Brown is mulling over whether to run for mayor or for Congress. A congressional run would pit him against his nemesis' mother, Rep. Carolyn Kilpatrick, who wants a seventh term. Brown has enlisted the help of polling firm EPIC-MRA to see which office holds the best prospects. Brown must file by May 13 for the August 5 Democratic primary.
And just one month later, he may testify against Kilpatrick, who faces charges of perjury, misconduct and obstruction of justice. That trial continues to shadow Brown's political future.
"[Brown] would be a formidable opponent, but I don't think he would win either race, particularly the one for Congress," says Todd Cook, a political consultant with Main Street Strategies, a Michigan-based Democratic firm. "Brown sounds like he's more interested in the position than doing the job."
—Ryan Reeh
States in the Spotlight
Florida
Democrats smell blood in the water down in Florida. Over the past two years, the party has managed to reverse its political misfortunes by nabbing nine new state House seats and picking up two congressional seats. And, for the first time, the number of Hispanic Democratic voters in the state has edged past the number of Hispanic Republicans.
In an effort to bolster their majority in Congress, Democrats are now targeting three South Florida Republicans: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Mario Diaz-Balart, in the 18th, 21st and 25th districts, respectively. The three challengers all have strong ties to the Cuban-American community. Although they are benefitting from fundraisers with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, they still have much smaller war chests and observers say they face an uphill battle.
“[Democrats] are trying to break into the GOP Hispanic culture bloc in Florida,” says David Beattie, a Florida-based Democratic consultant. “Some of the issues Hispanics in Florida care about are not being addressed at the national level, so they are voting in local [and] congressional races to get [the issues] debated and talked about.
—Ryan Reeh
Missouri
Missouri Republicans were launched into disarray earlier this year when Gov. Matt Blunt (son of House Minority Whip Roy Blunt) shocked them with the announcement he would not seek a second term. The unpopular governor has suffered voter resentment over large Medicaid cuts he pushed through in 2005, and is now facing accusations that he and his aides illegally deleted e-mails in violation of the state’s sunshine laws. The state has several competitive statewide elections this November, and Blunt’s troubles seem to indicate good news for Democrats.
The Democratic frontrunner to replace Blunt is state Attorney General Jay Nixon. On the Republican side are U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof and state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. A recent Rasmussen survey showed Nixon leading either Republican by about 10 percentage points in a general election. Still, Republicans are hopeful the political landscape will change as their candidates’ name recognition increases.
“Nixon is winning right now in polls because he has been running against Blunt, who is no longer in the race,” says John Hancock, a Republican strategist based in St. Louis. “The two GOP candidates are not as well-known right now, but that will change [because] this is a battleground race.
—Doug Daniels
Nevada
After a tumultuous year and a half in office, Nevada’s Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons may have finally exhausted the patience of even some of his staunchest supporters. Gibbons, who is still enduring an ongoing FBI corruption probe, recently filed for divorce from his wife, Dawn Gibbons, in what has become an increasingly messy public dispute. The whole situation has state Republicans worried about his reelection prospects in 2010, and expressing a fading level of sympathy.
The couple’s split eliminates Gibbons’ most effective political ally. In an episode in 2006, Dawn Gibbons was seen as instrumental in helping him reach out to conservative rural voters who had been turned off by allegations that he’d sexually assaulted a Las Vegas waitress.
Between the divorce, the state’s huge revenue shortfall and the corruption probe—which is exploring alleged improper contributions from a defense contractor—Democrats are feeling hopeful. Still, Gibbons has proven resilient in the past.
“Gibbons is certainly a maverick in Nevada politics and Democrats have attacked him from day one for all of these incidents,” says Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada at Reno. “All these scandals have had a negative impact on his administration, but all the accusations have come up dry."
—Ryan Reeh
Michigan
A very nasty recall election may be brewing for state House Speaker Andy Dillon, a moderate Democrat. The Michigan Taxpayers Alliance wants to recall Dillon for supporting tax increases during the state’s 2007 budget crisis, and is trying to put the issue on the Aug. 5 primary ballot. “We are doing this because Dillon raised taxes on suffering Michigan citizens,” Leon Drolet, chairman of the anti-tax group, told the Detroit Free Press recently.
Dillon has brought suit against the alliance, claiming it paid homeless people $1 for each signature they faked. Elections officials must determine that 8,724 signatures are valid. The group denies any wrongdoing, and says it has authenticated 11,300 of them.
Dems are launching a campaign to defend Dillon, while House Republicans are cautioning conservatives that if Dillon is recalled, a more liberal Democratic speaker could replace him.
—Ryan Reeh
States in the Spotlight
Pennsylvania—Beth LaMontagne
In 2006, Democrats won 32 house seats previously held by Republicans, but only one of those victories was in Ohio. This time around, state Democrats are hoping to harness some of the energy surrounding Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign to help their down-ticket races.
—Beth LaMontagne
The Obama campaign has registered a record number of new voters in Florida—but will that mean anything come Election Day?
—Tim Sampson
In a state where the most recent polls show Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama in a virtual dead heat in the contest to win Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, each party is utilizing direct voter contact—but they are taking different tacks.
—Tim Sampson
Who says the long Democratic primary season will hurt the party in the general election? Not New Mexico Democrats. According to state Democratic Party spokesperson Conchita Cruz, the party is receiving help from a large crop of excited and energized volunteers who signed up during the hotly contested Democratic primary.
-Beth LaMontagne
States in the Spotlight
California
If she decides to run in 2010, Sen. Dianne Feinstein would be the oldest California governor in history on Inauguration Day. At 77, she would shatter the record set by Frank Merriam, who was 69 when he became governor in 1934. Feinstein has not announced yet. But with a 1990 gubernatorial run under her belt, plus high name recognition and a great fundraising apparatus, she’d be tough to beat.
Massachusetts
—Abigail Shaha
New Jersey
—Shane D’Aprile
While the rest of the country’s economy spirals downward, North Dakota is reporting a record high budget surplus.
—Abigail Shaha
—Abigail Shaha
—Doug Daniels
States in the Spotlight
States in the SpotlightReds & Blues
States in the Spotlight
Wisconsin
Given that you could have timed the transition from the 2008 elections to the 2010 campaigns with a stopwatch, it’s no surprise that Republicans are already focusing on potential gains in the off-year elections. Contests at the state level will provide the GOP with its most promising opportunities, and Wisconsin—where two-term Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle faces falling approval ratings—seems a likely target.
Despite raising more than $700 million in new taxes and fees during Doyle’s tenure, Wisconsin’s budget is projected to have a $5.4 billion deficit. An October Rasmussen poll found only 34 percent of Badger State citizens rated him “excellent” or “good.”
Republicans have a relatively deep well of candidates to challenge Doyle. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (the only officially announced candidate), U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, state Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen, and U.S. Tanzania Ambassador Mark Green are all considered legitimate threats to the incumbent governor.
“Whichever Republican emerges, the general election is likely to be all about the economy and jobs creation—both places where Jim Doyle has failed,” says Michael Meyers, president of TargetPoint Consulting, who has worked for several candidates in the state. “Spending has increased every year under [Doyle] and his own agencies have refused to cut their budgets. Couple that with jobs fleeing the state because of the already hostile tax environment, combined
with more new taxes put forth by his administration, and you clearly have a recipe for electing new leadership.”
Predictably, though, Democrats think Wisconsin will continue to support their party and governor.
“Jim Doyle is going to be reelected because he’s had a successful second term,” says Nathan Daschle, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association. “He’s a proven leader, and will show, as our candidates did in 2008, that good governing leads to good candidates.”
Daschle also called Republican hopes for victory in America’s dairyland “premature.” Although, in the endless campaign that is America, it’s probably never too early for hope.
—Jeff Bukowski
Minnesota
Minnesota opened its first census office earlier this month, over a year before the 2010 census is scheduled to take place. But this time, the process is more than a head count.
“Based on the latest forecast we’ve done, Minnesota is right on the cusp of potentially losing a congressional seat,” says state demographer Tom Gillaspy. “We want to make sure we have one of the most accurate censuses, but there is a little bit of an extra incentive this time.”
The biggest battle Gillaspy and others face in getting an accurate count is the large population of foreign-born refugees living in Minnesota. Thanks to government refugee relocation programs, Minnesota has more refugees than any other state, proportionally. In fact, one in five people who immigrate to the North Star State are refugees.
“In the last couple decades, we’ve seen growth in immigrants from Russia, the former Soviet Union, Southeast Asia, west and east Africa, the Ivory Coast, the Balkan countries, Croatia, Montenegro, just about every corner of the world,” Gillaspy says. “And many of these people come from settings where the government has not been a positive thing in their life. So for somebody to come knock on the door from the federal government and say, ‘Hi, I’d like to ask you a few questions,’ that’s not a positive thing.”
Gillaspy says this is a particular problem in areas of growth like Worthington, Wilmer, Rochester and St. Cloud, all once rural areas that have transformed within the last few years. Miscounting areas like these could cost the state that congressional seat, something that would be particularly painful for Republicans.
“I would think that if the Democrats get control of the process, they would try to combine the 3rd and 6th Districts, at least to the extent that Michelle Bachmann would have another Republican incumbent in the district with her,” says William Flanigan, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Minnesota. “And if the [Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party] continues to be as strong as they have been the last two elections, they would probably control the process pretty easily.”
—Abigail Shaha
Kansas
With virtually all of Kansas’ statewide offices not only up for grabs, but expected to be hotly contested, 2010 is shaping up to be a year of drama in the Jayhawk State.
Kansans will vote in 2010 for a new governor, senator, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer and insurance commissioner, with each of the positions either having no incumbent or a non-elected incumbent on the ballot.
Despite the potential for massive party change, Kansans will largely be voting for a slate of familiar faces. Current U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback and Kansas Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh, for example, are expected to run for governor on the Republican side, while Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson will seek the Democratic nomination for the executive office.
“We certainly have a lot of musical chairs,” says Christian Morgan, executive director of the Kansas Republican Party. “This is a once-in-an-every-few-decades chance for the Kansas GOP to hold seats for 16 years.”
Of course, that chance isn’t limited to Republicans. State Democrats are salivating at the prospect of so many open offices, and expect to be competitive in each. “I think Kansans will be eager to reelect Democrats,” says Mike Gaughan, executive director of the Kansas Democratic Party. “We’ve put together a winning coalition of Democrats, independents and some Republicans who are unhappy with the direction their party is going. We have a lot of energy in the party to build on.”
—Jeff Bukowski
Utah
After lots of focus groups and polling, Utah’s Democratic Party Chairman Wayne Holland had an interesting predicament. When polled about party affiliation, members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints said they were Republican by a 2 to 1 margin. But when asked about specific issues like welfare or education, they sided with Democrats—by a 2 to 1 margin. So Holland saw an opportunity this cycle.
“We thought we could talk to Utah voters in a positive way about [issues] and subtly remind them that what they’re seeing in the Legislature is not in line with their values,” says Holland. Democrats created four full-page “stereotype buster” ads in papers that circulated to predominantly Mormon areas. One showed a mother of three with the slogan, “I vote education, I vote Democrat.”
Volunteers knocked on more than 100,000 doors in Salt Lake County, and the party mailed 154 unique direct mail pieces for various candidates. “Thanks partially to the [DNC’s] 50 State Partnership program, I was able to get donors to give more money than they ever had,” Holland says. That money got Holland the resources he needed to help some strong candidates make big gains.
On Election Day, Utah saw a 17 percent increase in votes for the Democratic presidential candidate over 2004, and Barack Obama won three counties, including Salt Lake County. That hasn’t happened in more than 40 years. Democrats also won four state legislative seats in a predominantly LDS area.
Holland hopes it’s the start of a blue tide. “The politics have changed and we’re on the offensive for the first time.”
—Abigail Shaha
Reds & Blues
States in the Spotlight...Alabama
With three special elections looming this year, Alabama Republicans are trying to position the party to take back control of the state Senate in 2010.
Democrats have a 19 to 13 majority, down from 22 to 13 in November. Following one senator’s successful run for the U.S. House, a death and indictment, Democrats now find themselves down three legislators and state Republicans are optimistic about picking up two of those three seats this year.
“We saw tremendous growth in the presidential election from the Republican side,” says Phillip Bryan, communications director for the Alabama GOP. “You have a Democrat vacating a seat, so there’s a lot of Republican interest.”
The Democratic majority in the state Senate is already tenuous—it includes several Democrats who caucus with the Republicans. And of the three Democrats the party recently lost, former Auburn University professor Wayne Flynt says they were key to the party’s hold on the chamber.
“They were loyal to the ruling cadre in the state Senate,” he says. “If all three of those districts wound up either with independent Democrats who did not support the party or Republicans, that could actually cost Democrats control of the Senate.”
The special elections are scheduled for this summer.
—Karen Anderson
Kentucky
Anti-robocall legislation has taken a hit in the Kentucky state legislature. Support for a bill that would have prohibited automated political calls to those on the federal do-not-call list has sputtered and stands a good chance of dying in committee this year.
“I’m not entirely sure where the opposition came from,” says state Rep. Jimmy Higdon, the Republican who sponsored the measure. “It was kind of stealth.”
Higdon says both the state Democratic and Republican parties were against the measure, and he suspects there was some behind-the-scenes opposition by state House leadership. Higdon says he’ll try to get the bill out of committee and to the floor, but he isn’t hopeful.
As more and more states entertain restrictions on the calls, the failure in Kentucky is a bit of good news for robocall vendors. “Whoever passes this kind of legislation will certainly be inviting some extended litigation,” says Brad Chism, who heads Zata3, a Democratic firm that specializes in automated calls. Zata3 has worked for a number of Kentucky Democrats over the past few cycles. “The case law on this just isn’t on their side.”
—Shane D’Aprile
West Virginia
As Republicans struggle to find a coherent message they can sell to voters, many in the party are arguing for a return to core principles. In West Virginia, that’s taking the form of a simple question: Who should be able to vote in the Republican primary?
The party has held open primaries since 1988, but a member of the executive committee recently suggested they consider going back to a closed system. The state party chairman appointed an ad hoc committee to study the question, but chances are the primary will stay open. “I don’t think it’s going to go very far,” says Gary Abernathy, the party’s executive director. He notes that every Republican in the state Senate and House of Delegates has come out against it, along with U.S. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, the state’s highest-ranking Republican.
“I think there are some Republicans, and some Democrats too, who feel like only members of the party should be choosing their nominees,” Abernathy says. “Probably in an ideal world, that’s how it would work. But obviously a lot of primaries have opened up, including the state Democratic Party—which is why it makes it very difficult for us to close ours right now.”
The state party’s executive committee will make the final decision during its summer meeting.
—Christie Findlay
Arizona
Arizona's huge budget shortfall is sparking dissension within the state Republican Party, setting the stage for a contentious 2010 gubernatorial primary.
When former Gov. Janet Napolitano joined President Barack Obama’s cabinet in January, it looked like a windfall for Republicans. With no lieutenant governor in the state, the popular Democrat was replaced by Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer. Just a month into Brewer’s term, though, rumors swirled that U.S. Rep Jeff Flake, known for his strong opposition to government spending, would run against her in a 2010 primary. Now the state’s $3 billion budget shortfall—which, as nearly 30 percent of the state’s 2009 general fund, is smaller only than Nevada’s—is causing further divisions. Brewer thinks a $1 billion tax increase is necessary to close the gap.
Despite the governor’s lead, however, 39 Republican state legislators have signed pledges to not raise taxes. Flake has also come out against a tax increase. “Saddling this anemic economy with higher taxes will exacerbate job losses, slow productivity, and cast a psychological pall over an increasing number of anxious Arizona workers and employers,” wrote Flake in a letter to state legislators. Opposition among Republicans is so strong that when Brewer proposed the increase in a speech before lawmakers, one senator stormed off in a huff. Brewer—who noted that Reagan, too, increased taxes his first year as governor—said she would not have proposed an increase if it were not “absolutely necessary.”
So far, Democrats have mostly stayed mum, letting Republicans—at least for the moment—fight this out amongst themselves.
—Boyce Upholt
Nevada
Theres's a movement afoot in the state legislature to do away with Nevada’s judicial election process and implement an appointment system. In recent cycles the state has been one of several plagued with costly and nasty judicial contests.
A bill sponsored by Republican state Sen. Bill Raggio would give the governor the authority to appoint state District and Supreme Court justices from a list of three candidates nominated by the state’s judicial selection commission. The justices would then be subject to a retention election after serving for a year. But changing the system means amending the state constitution, which requires voter approval and legislative approval in two separate sessions. The state legislature approved the measure in 2007—if it passes again this year it will go to Nevada voters in 2010.
Nevada-based political consultant Jim Denton thinks the measure has the support it needs to pass. “There hasn’t been a whole lot of support for [judicial appointment] in the past,” says Denton, who has worked for Nevada court candidates. “But this time voters might look at it differently.” Denton notes a slew of recent controversies surrounding elected judges in the state, including one who was removed from the bench last year after allegations of misconduct that included inappropriate contact with jurors and falling asleep on the bench.
Raggio hopes for a vote on the bill early this spring.
—Shane D’Aprile
Reds & Blues
States in the Spotlight...
Connecticut
Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd may not be able to save the economy, but he could save Connecticut’s Republican Party. Polls suggest that Connecticut voters are ready to bench the fi ve-term incumbent in 2010, and that’s igniting hope for the Connecticut GOP. “This is a really good opportunity for Republicans,” says Dr. Gary Rose, chair of the department of government and politics at Sacred Heart University. “I think it would send a regional and national message: Don’t count the party out right now.”
Connecticut Republicans were sidelined last fall when their lone congressman, 11-term Rep. Chris Shays, lost his bid for reelection. “Connecticut used to be a fairly competitive two-party state,” says Rose. “[Now] it has become very socially and culturally liberal.”
This past cycle, the national party and the McCain campaign showed little interest in the state. “The Obama phenomenon was particularly brutal here,” says Christopher Healy, chairman of the Connecticut GOP. “We were not a targeted state on the McCain level or the RNC level, so the Democrats who have leverage were able to bring the hammer down on us.”
With Sen. Dodd’s approval ratings already slipping, the GOP was handed a gift when the senator became the fall guy for the AIG bonus loophole. In the time since, Dodd’s approval rating has sunk to a career-low 33 percent, transforming him into slow-moving prey for his 2010 reelection bid. “Right now Connecticut voters are saying they’ll vote for anyone but Dodd,” says Doug Schwartz, director of polling at Quinnipiac University. A recent Quinnipiac poll showed Dodd trailing former Republican Rep. Rob Simmons by 16 percentage points. Simmons launched his campaign in March, days after the poll’s release.
“It’s not so much that Republicans have a message that’s really going to resonate with voters,” says Rose. “[It’s] more about Dodd than anything else.”
—Karen Anderson
Louisiana
At 5 feet 2 inches tall, freshman Rep. Joseph Cao is a stand-out. Last December he became the fi rst Vietnamese-American elected to the U.S. Congress and the fi rst Republican to represent New Orleans in the House since Reconstruction. But now few are giving him a chance to keep Louisiana’s 2nd District seat next year.
In 2008, Cao narrowly defeated scandal-plagued Democratic Rep. William Jefferson—a nine-term incumbent in an overwhelmingly Democratic district. “A routine candidate would have lost the race,” says James Farwell, one of Cao’s lead political strategists. “The enthusiasm that he generated within the community was enormous.”
Now Cao is trying to prove he can represent a district where Democratic registration is 66 percent. “Once you actually have public offi ce you can hang on to it provided you work hard and show it with constituency services,” Farwell says.
Cao made some noise in April after threatening to be the lone Republican vote in the House in favor of President Obama’s budget. Ultimately, Cao toed the party line and voted against the budget. He has also suggested that his politics are in line with those of his constituents, joking that he’s a “closet Democrat.” But the Democratic leadership in the state isn’t buying it.
“He can try to paint himself as a party maverick, but his votes don’t bear it out,” says Louisiana Democratic Party spokesman Scott Jordan. “He’s in such a heavily Democratic district. There will be no shortage of very qualifi ed challengers looking at that seat.” Cao made history in 2008. If he wants to keep his seat, he may have to repeat it in 2010.
—Karen Anderson
Idaho
Idaho sent freshman Democrat Walt Minnick to Washington with a political bull’s-eye on his back. Minnick serves a heavily Republican district, and his race for reelection is already attracting national attention. “We’re assuming it’s the number one race targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee,” says Minnick spokesman John Foster.
The state’s 1st Congressional District split its vote last fall, electing Minnick but supporting Republican presidential nominee John McCain by a 12-point margin. Prior to Minnick’s victory, the GOP had a lock on the district, holding it since 1967— the only exception being four years in the mid ’90s. Now, in order to keep his seat Minnick is fashioning himself as a fi scal conservative and showing his moderate stripes.
“Walt’s business background was a real plus [in 2008],” says Foster. Still, he is a Democrat, and that in itself is a hurdle to overcome with 1st District voters.
“So far I think he’s done exactly what he needs to do,” says Dr. Gary Moncrief, a political science professor at Boise State University. “The Party recognizes that they have to cut him some slack. Unless he becomes the pivotal vote in which bills are won or lost on his shoulders, I think he has a lot of latitude to do what he thinks is both right and right for his district.”
As for 2010, Moncrief says, “It’s a matter of where we are with the economy and how much of that is blamed on his party.”
—Karen Anderson
New Jersey
With Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine on the ropes, Republicans are hoping New Jersey will be the centerpiece of a Northeastern resurgence. But for Garden State Republicans, an even bigger challenge might come down-ballot this year. All 80 seats in the state’s general Assembly are up for election in 2009. Republicans hope that likely gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie—who holds an early lead over Corzine in recent polls—will help them take back seats.
“If you look historically at this kind of environment, you defi nitely see coattails coming into the ballot box,” says Tom Wilson, state GOP chair. “People vote for change up and down the ballot.”
Democrats, though, point to a different history in statewide races: They appear close early, but Democrats win in the end. And with 500,000 newly-registered Democratic voters, the party expects that pattern to continue.
Assembly District 14—one of the GOP’s top targets—exemplifi es the problem. It should be a battleground, since Corzine’s threats of furloughs and lay-offs are unpopular with the district’s many state workers. “But [Republicans] haven’t positioned their candidates to capitalize on that in any way, shape or form,” says Mercer County Democratic chair Rich McClellan. Even GOP insiders admit that the primary in 14 will be a “messy squabble,” as some are vehemently opposed to a 21-year-old college junior endorsed by one county committee. But Republicans still think they can unite to bring down an unpopular governor.
“Primaries are a family fi ght,” says Wilson. “There’s one thing that unifi es Republicans very quickly and that’s the need to make big changes.”
—Boyce Upholt
Illinois
In the wake of the Blagojevich scandal, lawmakers in Illinois are debating new campaign fi nance reforms that could help the state shed its reputation for scandal. Legislators are pushing a bill that would cap the amount of money individuals and PACs can donate to candidates. Currently, Illinois is one of only fi ve states with no contribution limits of any kind.
The bill would limit individual contributors to $2,300 and PAC contributions to $5,000. State Sen. Heather Steans, one of the bill’s sponsors, expects the Senate version to pass later this month. “We need to reduce the infl uence of money on Illinois politics,” Steans says. “The entire country is aware at this point of the role big dollar contributions can play in directing how politicians behave.”
Former Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s recent indictment is just another chapter in the state’s long history of political corruption. Blagojevich’s predecessor, George Ryan, is currently serving time for accepting kickbacks and gifts for political action. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias— a leading Democratic candidate for the Senate next year now that Obama replacement Roland Burris has been dragged into the muck—says he will decline all contributions from federal lobbyists and corporate PACs. And in an executive order, Gov. Pat Quinn called for the formation of an independent reform commission to examine ethics in the state government. “While we can’t legislate ethical behavior, I do believe we can at least work to improve the culture in which politicians are operating,” says Steans.
—Boyce Upholt
Reds & Blues
States in the Spotlight...
Oregon
Republicans are excited about landing a top-tier candidate to challenge Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio in Oregon’s very blue 4th District. Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken announced that he will run against the 12-term Democrat. Leiken appears to be facing very long odds: DeFazio has never earned less than 61 percent of the vote in his reelection campaigns and President Obama carried the southwest Oregon district with 54 percent last year. But Republicans may be hoping the early challenge will push DeFazio into running for a different office. DeFazio has raised the possibility of seeking the soon-to-be open governor’s seat after term-limited Gov. Ted Kulongoski steps down.
Republicans also point out that the district has been more competitive in prior presidential races. In 2000, George W. Bush carried the district by a 5-point margin. In 2004 John Kerry edged Bush by just over 1,000 votes. Leiken, 47, who has been mayor of the district’s second largest city since 2000, was heavily pursued by the National Republican Congressional Committee. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the NRCC’s recruiting chairman, met with Leiken about a week before he made his announcement.
National Republicans are also touting Leiken’s recruitment as part of a new strategy. In addition to winning back some of the 54 seats that Democrats have picked up in the last two cycles, Republicans are hoping to put districts that have been reliably Democratic into play. Last year DeFazio ran for reelection without a Republican opponent.
Republicans hope Leiken’s record on the economy will appeal to independents. He has experience as an executive at a local bank and a business consultant, as well as his family’s background in the timber industry.
—Jeremy P. Jacobs
California
Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) has hired veteran scandal-trained consultant Lanny Davis after news reports revealed that she was recorded on NSA wiretaps allegedly offering to lobby on behalf of former American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) employees facing espionage charges in return for help securing a committee chairmanship.
Harman said she will rely on Davis for his media expertise.
“My day job, road races and family leave me too little time to feed the insatiable beast,” Harman said in a statement. “Lanny is an old and trusted friend who has expertise in getting the facts out.”
Davis worked as special counsel to President Bill Clinton and served as his administration’s spokesman on several legal issues, including Clinton’s impeachment trial.
Davis penned a 2006 book entitled Scandal: How ‘Gotcha’ Politics is Destroying America. Harman’s move comes after it was revealed that the NSA recorded her on a 2005 wiretap with a suspected Israeli agent. Harman, who was then hoping to become chairwoman of the House intelligence committee after the 2006 election, allegedly vowed to pull strings to reduce espionage charges facing two former AIPAC employees in return for AIPAC lobbying then-Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to appoint Harman to the intelligence committee post.
Harman went on the offensive after the news broke. She made the cable news rounds adamantly denying ever contacting the White House or the Justice Department regarding the former AIPAC employees. She also sent a letter to the Justice Department calling for Attorney General Eric Holder to release the tapes of the wiretapped conversation and any other investigative material involving her.
—Jeremy P. Jacobs
Kentucky
The saga of the 2010 Senate race took yet another turn when Jim Bunning, whose reelection prospects have been questioned by Republicans, Democrats and apparently by Bunning himself, vowed to run again next year.
Speaking to state Republicans at their annual Lincoln Day Dinner, the two-term Republican senator said, “I hope and pray I can count on your support in the coming months, but I am prepared to fight for my values.”
Bunning’s speech is the latest in a string of sometimes baffl ing and often bizarre developments. In late February, Senate Republicans were openly urging the 77-year-old Bunning not to seek reelection. Around that time Bunning said that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who was suffering from pancreatic cancer, had only nine months to live. He later apologized for the remarks.
Then there are Bunning’s questionable political moves. He threatened to sue the National Republican Senatorial Committee if it recruited a primary challenger to run against him after committee officials met with Kentucky Senate President David Williams. And he’s publicly feuding with his state’s senior senator—Mitch McConnell—who just happens to be his party’s leader in the upper chamber.
He put a poll into the field testing his reelection chances. Bunning told reporters about the poll but refused to release any of the results, leading to speculation that his numbers weren’t good. On top of that, his first-quarter fundraising was terrible. He raised $263,000 and finished with $376,000 in his war chest.
Bunning also met with Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, a rising Republican star in the state, before Grayson launched an exploratory committee to look at running for the seat, leading many insiders to conclude that Bunning was retiring.
Democrats have lined up two contenders for the race in Kentucky Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway.
—Jeremy P. Jacobs
Arizona
Former Democratic speechwriter and policy adviser Andrei Cherny has launched his own bid for statewide office in Arizona. The Phoenix-area lawyer is challenging State Treasurer Dean Martin, a Republican incumbent. “Arizona, more than just about any other state in the country, is really feeling the brunt of the economic crisis,” says Cherny. “And what we’ve seen just generally is a lack of economic leadership in the state.”
A former top speechwriter for Vice President Al Gore and policy adviser to both Gore and President Barack Obama, Cherny says the jump from behind-the-scenes adviser to candidate is proving smoother than he imagined. “Those skills are proving to be very helpful in what I’m doing currently,” he says.
Arizona Republicans see Cherny’s bid as opportunistic, noting that he previously explored a bid for state Assembly in California in 2002.
Garrick Taylor, a partner at the Republican firm Lincoln Strategy Group, says Martin’s name has come up time and again over the past cycle as a potential candidate for the U.S. Senate or a higher profile statewide post.
“He’s thinking that Martin might make a jump for higher office and clear the way a bit,” says Taylor. “I think that logic might be a bit flawed.” Right now, he says, all signs are pointing to Martin staying put, which likely means a tougher political road for Cherny.
—Shane D'Aprile
Mississippi
When Democrat Travis Childers won a special election in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District last May, it marked a low-point for national Republicans. It was the third straight special election the party had lost—and this loss was deep in GOP territory. Sixth months later, Childers won again—receiving 54 percent of the vote in a district that John McCain won with 62 percent. Despite Childers’ conservative stances on abortion and gun rights (he makes some of the more moderate members of the caucus look like lefties), he should get a run for his money next year. But Republicans have yet to settle on a challenger.
Among those mulling a bid are two Republican state Senators: Alan Nunnelee and Merle Flowers. Childers pollster John Anzalone thinks despite the favorable territory, challengers are reluctant. “[Childers] defies party labels and that’s always been our message,” says Anzalone. “So even though it’s a really tough district [for Democrats], he has run strong in more than one election. That should give even strong Republican challengers pause.”
Last cycle, the DCCC spent more than a million dollars to help Childers win the seat. And despite votes against the stimulus package and the Obama budget, observers are convinced national Dems will open their pockets again to keep Childers in the House. “They have an investment in him,” says Anzalone, “and they are going to protect that investment.”
—Shane D'Aprile