Reds & BluesHomepage > Politics Magazine > June 2009 > Reds & BluesStates in the Spotlight... Oregon Republicans are excited about landing a top-tier candidate to challenge Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio in Oregon’s very blue 4th District. Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken announced that he will run against the 12-term Democrat. Leiken appears to be facing very long odds: DeFazio has never earned less than 61 percent of the vote in his reelection campaigns and President Obama carried the southwest Oregon district with 54 percent last year. But Republicans may be hoping the early challenge will push DeFazio into running for a different office. DeFazio has raised the possibility of seeking the soon-to-be open governor’s seat after term-limited Gov. Ted Kulongoski steps down. Republicans also point out that the district has been more competitive in prior presidential races. In 2000, George W. Bush carried the district by a 5-point margin. In 2004 John Kerry edged Bush by just over 1,000 votes. Leiken, 47, who has been mayor of the district’s second largest city since 2000, was heavily pursued by the National Republican Congressional Committee. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the NRCC’s recruiting chairman, met with Leiken about a week before he made his announcement. National Republicans are also touting Leiken’s recruitment as part of a new strategy. In addition to winning back some of the 54 seats that Democrats have picked up in the last two cycles, Republicans are hoping to put districts that have been reliably Democratic into play. Last year DeFazio ran for reelection without a Republican opponent. Republicans hope Leiken’s record on the economy will appeal to independents. He has experience as an executive at a local bank and a business consultant, as well as his family’s background in the timber industry. —Jeremy P. Jacobs California Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) has hired veteran scandal-trained consultant Lanny Davis after news reports revealed that she was recorded on NSA wiretaps allegedly offering to lobby on behalf of former American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) employees facing espionage charges in return for help securing a committee chairmanship. Harman said she will rely on Davis for his media expertise. “My day job, road races and family leave me too little time to feed the insatiable beast,” Harman said in a statement. “Lanny is an old and trusted friend who has expertise in getting the facts out.” Davis worked as special counsel to President Bill Clinton and served as his administration’s spokesman on several legal issues, including Clinton’s impeachment trial. Davis penned a 2006 book entitled Scandal: How ‘Gotcha’ Politics is Destroying America. Harman’s move comes after it was revealed that the NSA recorded her on a 2005 wiretap with a suspected Israeli agent. Harman, who was then hoping to become chairwoman of the House intelligence committee after the 2006 election, allegedly vowed to pull strings to reduce espionage charges facing two former AIPAC employees in return for AIPAC lobbying then-Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to appoint Harman to the intelligence committee post. Harman went on the offensive after the news broke. She made the cable news rounds adamantly denying ever contacting the White House or the Justice Department regarding the former AIPAC employees. She also sent a letter to the Justice Department calling for Attorney General Eric Holder to release the tapes of the wiretapped conversation and any other investigative material involving her. —Jeremy P. Jacobs Kentucky The saga of the 2010 Senate race took yet another turn when Jim Bunning, whose reelection prospects have been questioned by Republicans, Democrats and apparently by Bunning himself, vowed to run again next year. Speaking to state Republicans at their annual Lincoln Day Dinner, the two-term Republican senator said, “I hope and pray I can count on your support in the coming months, but I am prepared to fight for my values.” Bunning’s speech is the latest in a string of sometimes baffl ing and often bizarre developments. In late February, Senate Republicans were openly urging the 77-year-old Bunning not to seek reelection. Around that time Bunning said that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who was suffering from pancreatic cancer, had only nine months to live. He later apologized for the remarks. Then there are Bunning’s questionable political moves. He threatened to sue the National Republican Senatorial Committee if it recruited a primary challenger to run against him after committee officials met with Kentucky Senate President David Williams. And he’s publicly feuding with his state’s senior senator—Mitch McConnell—who just happens to be his party’s leader in the upper chamber. He put a poll into the field testing his reelection chances. Bunning told reporters about the poll but refused to release any of the results, leading to speculation that his numbers weren’t good. On top of that, his first-quarter fundraising was terrible. He raised $263,000 and finished with $376,000 in his war chest. Bunning also met with Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, a rising Republican star in the state, before Grayson launched an exploratory committee to look at running for the seat, leading many insiders to conclude that Bunning was retiring. Democrats have lined up two contenders for the race in Kentucky Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway. —Jeremy P. Jacobs Arizona Former Democratic speechwriter and policy adviser Andrei Cherny has launched his own bid for statewide office in Arizona. The Phoenix-area lawyer is challenging State Treasurer Dean Martin, a Republican incumbent. “Arizona, more than just about any other state in the country, is really feeling the brunt of the economic crisis,” says Cherny. “And what we’ve seen just generally is a lack of economic leadership in the state.” A former top speechwriter for Vice President Al Gore and policy adviser to both Gore and President Barack Obama, Cherny says the jump from behind-the-scenes adviser to candidate is proving smoother than he imagined. “Those skills are proving to be very helpful in what I’m doing currently,” he says. Arizona Republicans see Cherny’s bid as opportunistic, noting that he previously explored a bid for state Assembly in California in 2002. Garrick Taylor, a partner at the Republican firm Lincoln Strategy Group, says Martin’s name has come up time and again over the past cycle as a potential candidate for the U.S. Senate or a higher profile statewide post. “He’s thinking that Martin might make a jump for higher office and clear the way a bit,” says Taylor. “I think that logic might be a bit flawed.” Right now, he says, all signs are pointing to Martin staying put, which likely means a tougher political road for Cherny. —Shane D'Aprile Mississippi When Democrat Travis Childers won a special election in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District last May, it marked a low-point for national Republicans. It was the third straight special election the party had lost—and this loss was deep in GOP territory. Sixth months later, Childers won again—receiving 54 percent of the vote in a district that John McCain won with 62 percent. Despite Childers’ conservative stances on abortion and gun rights (he makes some of the more moderate members of the caucus look like lefties), he should get a run for his money next year. But Republicans have yet to settle on a challenger. Among those mulling a bid are two Republican state Senators: Alan Nunnelee and Merle Flowers. Childers pollster John Anzalone thinks despite the favorable territory, challengers are reluctant. “[Childers] defies party labels and that’s always been our message,” says Anzalone. “So even though it’s a really tough district [for Democrats], he has run strong in more than one election. That should give even strong Republican challengers pause.” Last cycle, the DCCC spent more than a million dollars to help Childers win the seat. And despite votes against the stimulus package and the Obama budget, observers are convinced national Dems will open their pockets again to keep Childers in the House. “They have an investment in him,” says Anzalone, “and they are going to protect that investment.” —Shane D'Aprile |
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